Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1617 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1617 · DFW → BUR

departs 10:56 AM CT · arrives 12:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ BUR is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

BUR (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1617 · DFW → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?