AA 1643 · DFW → AUS

departs 7:37 AM CT · arrives 8:50 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.09 in

AUS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1643 · DFW → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?