Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1664 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1664 · PHL → PVD

departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 11:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PVD?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ 10pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ PVD usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.26 in

PVD (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1664 · PHL → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?