AA 1684 · DFW → MSY

departs 8:55 AM CT · arrives 10:39 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MSY that day

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.06 in

MSY (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1684 · DFW → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?