Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1806 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1806 · TPA → PHL

departs 6:01 AM ET · arrives 8:39 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from TPA are usually not late

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1806 · TPA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?