AA 1812 · DFW → XNA

departs 2:18 PM CT · arrives 3:40 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.22 in

XNA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1812 · DFW → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?