Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1826 IN THE AIR (OFF 6:12 AM PT, ETA 7:32 AM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

AA 1826 · RNO → PHX

took off 6:12 AM PT · expected to land 7:32 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ PHX is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1826 · RNO → PHX

Odds over time