Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1829 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow

AA 1829 · FAT → PHX

departs 7:35 PM PT · arrives 9:15 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FAT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1829 · FAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?