Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1831SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AA 1831 · PHX → FAT
departs 10:21 AM MT · arrives 12:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
19%chance · ±1 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.