Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1863 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1863 · DFW → FLL

departs 10:21 AM CT · arrives 2:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

FLL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1863 · DFW → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?