Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1872 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1872 · PHL → XNA

departs 6:21 PM ET · arrives 8:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.26 in

XNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1872 · PHL → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?