Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1878 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1878 · FSD → DFW

departs 5:34 PM CT · arrives 7:58 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FSD

↓ FSD usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1878 · FSD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?