AA 1881 · LAS → PHL

departs 11:21 AM PT · arrives 7:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at PHL that day

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1881 · LAS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?