Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1888 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1888 · GEG → PHX

departs 3:00 PM PT · arrives 5:37 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 8:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

GEG (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1888 · GEG → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?