Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1909 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1909 · IAH → ORD

departs 11:26 AM CT · arrives 2:17 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.17 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1909 · IAH → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?