Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1911 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1911 · DFW → RNO

departs 8:50 AM CT · arrives 10:11 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RNO?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,033 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

RNO (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1911 · DFW → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?