Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1929 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1929 · IAH → DFW

departs 6:53 PM CT · arrives 8:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.17 in

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1929 · IAH → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?