AA 1938 · DFW → ORD

departs 4:54 AM CT · arrives 7:24 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.06 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1938 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?