Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1940 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 1940 · DFW → SJC

departs 9:24 PM CT · arrives 10:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

SJC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1940 · DFW → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?