AA 1951 · PHX → SAN

departs 2:07 PM MT · arrives 3:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at PHX that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1951 · PHX → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?