Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2141 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2141 · DFW → MSN

departs 2:11 PM CT · arrives 4:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling867 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

MSN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2141 · DFW → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?