Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2144 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2144 · DFW → MSO

departs 11:08 AM CT · arrives 1:31 PM MT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSO?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSO

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,033 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.03 in

MSO (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2144 · DFW → MSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSO?