Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2146 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

AA 2146 · PHX → SMF

departs 9:42 PM MT · arrives 11:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2146 · PHX → SMF

Odds over time