AA 2208 · SEA → PHX

departs 3:11 PM PT · arrives 6:12 PM MT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Gusts to 26 kt forecast at PHX that day

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2208 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?