Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2226 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2226 · DFW → OMA

departs 9:35 AM CT · arrives 11:25 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OMA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.08 in

OMA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2226 · DFW → OMA

Odds over time

How late will it get to OMA?