Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2263 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2263 · DFW → JAX

departs 6:52 PM CT · arrives 10:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±5 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.03 in

JAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2263 · DFW → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?