Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2283 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2283 · DFW → PDX

departs 8:49 PM CT · arrives 10:51 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 59h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at PDX that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.08 in

PDX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2283 · DFW → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?