Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2285 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2285 · PDX → PHL

departs 10:30 PM PT · arrives 6:43 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at PDX that day

↓ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2285 · PDX → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?