Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2301 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2301 · PIT → LAX

departs 6:28 PM ET · arrives 8:36 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from PIT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2301 · PIT → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?