Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2354 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2354 · PHL → PWM

departs 12:45 PM ET · arrives 2:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↑ 12pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PWM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.39 in

PWM (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2354 · PHL → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?