AA 2405 · ATL → PHL

departs 6:19 PM ET · arrives 8:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at ATL that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at PHL that day

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.31 in

PHL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2405 · ATL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?