AA 2421 · PHX → SFO

departs 4:58 PM MT · arrives 7:08 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2421 · PHX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?