Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2476 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2476 · DFW → SAN

departs 9:05 AM CT · arrives 10:05 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

SAN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2476 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?