AA 2482 · ABQ → PHL

departs 2:05 PM MT · arrives 8:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PHL that day

↓ Other factors

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2482 · ABQ → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?