Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2486 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2486 · ORD → SAT

departs 10:00 AM CT · arrives 12:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2486 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?