Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2486 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2486 · SAT → ORD

departs 1:32 PM CT · arrives 4:38 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at SAT that day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

ORD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2486 · SAT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?