Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2506 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2506 · DFW → JAX

departs 8:16 PM CT · arrives 11:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 48% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ JAX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

JAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2506 · DFW → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?