Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2523 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2523 · ORD → SEA

departs 6:40 AM CT · arrives 9:27 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2523 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?