Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2534 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2534 · PHL → SEA

departs 8:35 AM ET · arrives 11:40 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.23 in

SEA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2534 · PHL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?