AA 2537 · ORD → TUS

departs 9:52 AM CT · arrives 11:39 AM MT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 6h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2537 · ORD → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?