Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2543 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2543 · ORD → SFO

departs 6:29 AM CT · arrives 9:05 AM PT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2543 · ORD → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?