AA 2592 · PHL → CMH

departs 4:09 PM ET · arrives 5:49 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.12 in

CMH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2592 · PHL → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?