AA 2596 · SNA → DFW

took off 8:57 AM PT · expected to land 1:25 PM CT (scheduled 8:46 AM PT → 1:56 PM CT)

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2596 · SNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?