AA 2731 · PHL → PIT

departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 4:35 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.12 in

PIT (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2731 · PHL → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?