Schedule: a typical Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2821 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2821 · BNA → DFW

departs 5:01 AM CT · arrives 7:12 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BNA are usually not late

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.6 mi Precip0.40 in

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2821 · BNA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?