AA 2834 · SJC → DFW

departs 2:37 PM PT · arrives 8:03 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from SJC are often late

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2834 · SJC → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?