Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2851 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2851 · DFW → TUL

departs 8:55 AM CT · arrives 10:02 AM CT

Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into TUL at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

TUL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2851 · DFW → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?