AA 2863 · PNS → DFW

departs 1:43 PM CT · arrives 3:47 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

60% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
30%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
17%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 2.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PNS that day

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ PNS usually runs smoothly

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PNS (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip2.23 in

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.26 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2863 · PNS → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?