Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2876 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 2876 · DFW → TYS

departs 1:32 PM CT · arrives 4:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at TYS more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TYS?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at TYS that day

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ TYS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.08 in

TYS (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.2 mi Precip1.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2876 · DFW → TYS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TYS?