Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2885 LANDED 4:30 PM CT, ~26 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Sunday, October 4 Today

AA 2885 · SFO → ORD

took off 10:52 AM PT · landed 4:30 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2885 · SFO → ORD

Odds over time